Monday, March 21, 2022

Popularist Pandering or Constructive Government

 Well, well, well! Why on earth are we surprised? 


 

[Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022}


In order to become and remain the Government in New Zealand, a political party must be popular. The decisions they make, regardless of whether they are technically right or not, determine their popularity.

I had suggested in my last BLOG, ‘Appalling Behaviour in the Playground or Just Oppositional Politics?’, the COVID Pandemic provided an opportunity for a more collaborative and productive approach, e.g., a Pandemic Governance Committee comprising representatives of all parties in Parliament, which could have worked as a forum contributing, debating, critiquing, identifying the most appropriate path forward and hopefully reaching a consensus. (https://ingeoffsopinion.blogspot.com  – 31/12/21)

What has transpired is of course well documented in the print and social media which might be summarised as:

1. We accept the Government’s attempts to save us from the pandemic – until we have                decided we have had enough of being told what to do.

2. The most significant opposition party which had been busy eating its leaders suddenly              becomes more popular - because the Government isn’t anymore.

3. We get bored with people we saw as heroes - then we pillory them.

4. The Government is criticised from all quarters – loses popularity.

Not surprisingly, the Government got the message about their significant drop in popularity through the polls. They react to the concerns and make rapid decisions to try and ease the stress on the People. 

That is momentarily lauded then…. “In the last few days the Labour Government has come in for criticism for its panicked pandering to opinion polls… This was in response to pressure from opponents and the public … and following a poll showing Labour behind National.” (Bryce Edwards; Political Roundup)

The Government’s actions were labelled “cowardly...cynical and reactionary” by Jack Tame (TVNZ/Newstalk ZB) who also noted, “Once again, Jacinda Ardern's Government has shown it's more interested in doing what is popular than what is right.”  The website Interest.co.nz asked economists for their view on the reforms – “political, reactionary, poorly targeted, short-termist and interventionist,” summarises their responses.

And that is it in a nutshell really. It doesn’t matter which party is in Government, they must maintain voter popularity rather than do what is right to stay in power. If it shouldn’t be that way, then we the voters, will have to change our behaviour to influence a changed  performance.





Friday, December 31, 2021

Appalling Behaviour in the Playground or Just Oppositional Politics?

It came as a great surprise to me to learn that The Parliamentary Oath does not require parliamentarians to work together in the best interests of NZ!

A democracy without opposition is dangerous for the society as a whole and a lot of importance has been given to the political opposition in order to make a government accountable. An effective opposition performs a restraining role, whilst simultaneously posing a constant challenge by promising a practical alternative. For that purpose, we use what is known as the Westminster Model as our model of Parliamentary Government, which has evolved since the 1600’s.

There are three models of political opposition which haven’t changed when the model was questioned way back in 1957. First is the “classical opposition”, to oppose anything and everything. Second is what might be “opposition of principle”, bent not only on wrenching power from the government of today, but on ending once and for all the system on which that government rests. The third is a counter-concept to the other two. It relates to government under various forms of cartel arrangements among political organizations operating within the framework of parliamentary institutions. 

There is plenty of research on what parliamentary opposition is, but very little on its effectiveness.

liked this summary of Westminster politics – Picture a line-up of politicians. All have their arms outstretched pointing to the person on their left. They are all playing a blame game, accusing their opponents of responsibility for some event, statement, or incident. With politics, often another term for opportunism, it is often a question of how quickly to jump into a situation or ‘breaking news’ that can be reframed to their advantage. 

Are the behaviours we regularly see, and more so in the recent challenging times, the hall marks of an ‘effective opposition’? 

It is impossible to run an organisation without there being mistakes. The only way to learn to do the real thing is to do the real thing. And every system breaks down and even the best trained people make mistakes at times. You can chase down those who make mistakes and humiliate them, creating a climate of fear. Or you can talk about the mistakes openly so people and the system can learn. In an organisation, that is an illustration of a positive & productive culture. 

How come that doesn’t apply to parliament and the running of NZ Inc?

The Parliamentary Oath is a statement of Allegiance to the Queen, heirs & successors, to be loyal to NZ, obey the law, respect democratic values & freedoms of the people. It came as a great surprise to me to learn that The Oath does not require parliamentarians to work together in the best interests of NZ!

We live in a world shaped by hundreds of years of collective, structural harms (e.g. the legacies of colonisation, heteropatriarchy) that shape the culture we live in. That means these patterns have shaped us too. Conflict unveils systemic traumas and the ways oppressive systems and violent people have used power against us over time and generations.

One of the strident messages I have learned throughout our current pandemic crisis is how counterproductive our parliamentary oppositional model is and how willingly and quickly MPs will resort to blame, personal invective, and ‘playing the person not the ball’. 

So, if that behaviour is not acceptable in the workplace, or on the sports field, or at school or in the playground, how come its ok in Parliament?   

The function of the opposition is not to rule. Instead, the opposition may have other functions, including:

To offer political alternatives…

To offer alternatives to the decisions proposed by the government…

The extent to which the opposition in a given parliamentary system is allowed to actually fulfil these functions can be seen as the sign of the level of democratic maturity. 

An opposition party may be less likely to support government policy if it is large enough to achieve a position of power itself by replacing the incumbent government after the next elections. Larger parties might not show higher levels of support for government policies and actions because their credibility as an electoral alternative would suffer from being overly supportive of the very government they seek to replace. 

In a review of the House of Commons (UK) it was found that Party loyalties greatly inhibited public criticisms and undermined evidence based reasoning about policies. Legacy procedural practices, plus MPs traditionalist attachment to inefficient and ineffective ways of working limited the legislature’s role. 

Is government vs opposition, where the opposition vote against the government irrespective of the proposal that is made, the best model for democratic representation? 

This practice is reinforced ensuring cohesion within party lines rather than necessarily the best interest of NZ Inc through the practice of ‘whipping’. Members do not get to vote ‘sincerely’.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a crisis situation that requires extensive government action whereas the role of parliamentary parties is less clear. Government – Opposition relations during a crisis can range from consensus seeking too strictly adversarial. Analysis  of a number of parliaments showed that opposition parties expressed sentiment in parliamentary debates on COVID-19 started out relatively positive towards governments actions and policies but increasingly became more negative, particularly when the crisis broadened from a public health situation to a social and economic crisis - traditionally more politicised issues. 

The crisis is no longer new. Some of the issues around handling of the pandemic now seem to speak more to longstanding ideological differences. 

So, to summarise the characteristics of New Zealand’s oppositional model (Westminster):

a) Our parliamentarians are not required to work together in the best interests of NZ.

b) Although we are a world leader in democracy, our parliamentary opposition exists primarily for the sake of opposition only. 

c) Members do not get to vote sincerely (apart from a rare ‘conscience’ vote) but are ‘whipped’ to vote with the Party.

d) Party loyalties greatly inhibit public criticisms and undermine evidence based reasoning about policies.

e) They are all playing a blame game.

f) If the opposition party is large enough to achieve a position of power itself, they are bent on wrenching power from the government of today.

g) We are democratically immature.  

Relationship researcher John Gottman identified four ways of managing conflict that weaken trust relationships. Many facilitators have identified these habits are toxic for trust in groups:

Personal criticism (blame; attacking the other person’s character or personality; bullying)

Defensiveness (deflection; self-protection; justification)

Contempt (demeaning; mocking; disrespect & hostility; undermining; belittling)

Stonewalling (withdrawal & cutting off communication; silent treatment; avoidance)

Let’s now take a step into the workplace, starting with some wise words from Charles Darwin, “In the long history of humankind (and animal kind too) those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed.”

The overall character of a business is described as the Workplace Culture. Ideally, businesses want to create a culture that is viewed as positive. Positive = Productive. A company would accomplish this by focusing on innovation, flexibility, and empowerment for example. On the flip side, a company’s culture will be seen as negative when it is hierarchical, bureaucratic, or power driven. If there isn’t a positive feedback culture, people become fearful of making mistakes, and consequentially of making decisions, they won’t try new things. They will come to fear the job.

Positive cultures are characterised by positive leaders, leading the way by example.

Nothing is more important than building teams of creative thinkers and problem solvers stimulated to venturesome and inventive thinking. Innovation is the catalyst to  problem solving and business growth. It means being open to new ideas, technology, and unexplored opportunities; a commitment to adapt; welcoming diverse thought.

Collaborative problem solving requires team members to maintain communication to help each other know who knows what, as well as help each other interpret elements of the problem and which expertise should be applied. They will critique possible solutions to identify the most appropriate path forward.

The opposite of a positive work environment is described as a toxic or negative culture, working in which is far from a pleasant experience. Those who bet on having a cut-throat, high-pressure, take-no-prisoners culture will find that not only is that harmful to ‘productivity’ but also workplace wellbeing is seriously affected. Such environments are often characterised by bullying.

Bullying is when someone uses their power to control or ‘hurt’ someone else by teasing or making fun, spreading rumours, posting mean messages online in social media or texts, name calling. It also includes gloating about winning and making others feel bad about losing. It is bullying when it’s meant to hurt. It is no secret that the Parliament working environment is no happy place.

Ironically, a government department set up to help businesses has an excellent summary of advice on shaping a good work culture on its website, which seemingly does not apply to Parliament. [https://www.business.govt.nz/business-performance/management-and-leadership/shaping-your-work-culture/]

I have assumed the business of all Parliamentarians is to ensure the wellbeing of the people and improving the business results of NZ Inc. Is their commitment to good governance and the wellbeing of the population they represent, or is it to a political dogma and party?  

The key behaviour characteristics necessary to work together to achieve the best outcomes for all NZers include:

Positive feedback and recognition for accomplishments

Lead by example

Recognise and appreciate great work

Continuous learning culture

Fairness, tolerance, and respect for the individual

Encouraging experimentation and risk taking

Ability to recognize and negotiate social dynamics  

Understand the impact of words and behaviours

When people blindly align themselves to one party and their leader, they tend to overlook the negative effects of their decisions. They don a ‘political colour’ shirt which acts as a straitjacket for both their actions and thinking as they exhibit: 

Unconscious & conscious bias

Lack of Social Intelligence 

In groups and Out groups

Power dynamics

Workplace incivility

True leaders unite people. They do not divide them. 

They do not find faults. But they do find remedies. 

They do not sow hate. But they do cultivate positive organisation and life cultures.

Sadly, our narrow interpretation of the oppositional model of Westminster politics works actively against this wisdom. If all ideas are worth considering in the construction of a universal plan, then all political energy would have been positively focused for our overall wellbeing, not the setting for political point scoring at the expense of our wellbeing.

The COVID Pandemic provided an opportunity for a more collaborative and productive approach. For example and at the risk of oversimplifying, A Pandemic Governance Committee could have been set up, comprising representatives of all parties in Parliament. That could have worked as a forum contributing, debating, critiquing, identifying the most appropriate path forward and hopefully reaching a consensus. 

Yes, the Government would ultimately have to decide. They would provide the citizens with an overview of all of the contributions, a decision, and outlining what had not been included and why.

Yes, other parties would publicly offer comment, especially if something they thought important had been omitted. They would NOT make a personal attack in any way but offer reasoned commentary on what they feel the impact may be. If it turns out they were right, then that would be publicly acknowledged, and their opinions considered more thoughtfully in the future. And voters might consider that come the next election. 

I think this is where you say, “And pigs will fly!”


#politicalopposition      #nzparliamentarysystem         #blindpolitics      #ingeoffsopinion 



References:

The Waning of Opposition in Parliamentary Regimes” by Otto Kirchheimer, 1957

Opposition in a Small Westminster Parliament: The case of Tasmania / Australasian Parliamentary Review, by Richard Herr, Autumn  2007.

The Role of Opposition in a Democracy: A Bibliometric Analysis’, Shrivastava & Dwivedi, 2021

Opposition in times of crisis: COVID-19 in parliamentary debates” by Louwerse et al, pub 3 March 2021 

The futility of Politics as a blame game. Opinion, Aljazeera, Danny Schechter, Sept. 2012. 

How effective are the Common’s two committee systems at scrutinising government policy making? 2018 Audit of UK Democracy. P. Dunleavy

Eight ways to build collaborative teams, HBR, Gratton & Erickson, November 2007.



Monday, December 6, 2021

Delta - Too Close For Comfort

This last week, Covid Delta got too close for comfort.

On Sunday I attended the zoom memorial service for Rex Warwood, a character and news reporter for many years in Franklin. Covid 19 cast its line, caught Rex, and rather than ‘tag and release’ took his life. 

 


Up until that point, COVID certainly was a concern for me, I had not come in direct contact with the dangerous consequences. During the first lockdown of 2020 I worked through at the Foodbank and certainly understood the impact of people losing their jobs. Sometimes there were near 200 people lined up around the foodbank waiting for food when we arrived at work. Thanks to my employer I was already double vaccinated before Delta took hold this year. In fact, I had ‘retired’ the month before we locked down again, so I was confined to home.

That in itself was not so bad – there was plenty to do on our farm.

People and behaviour fascinate me and as I came across the various memes, posters, messages, and the like, I decided on a project. Through Facebook, I began collecting what I thought would form something of a pictorial historical record of thoughts during  the Delta lockdown. Each day I would post a number of these. I never expressed any thoughts, judgement or commentary choosing to remain apolitical.

As you will know, a decidedly different feeling began to emerge. During the first lockdown last year the sense of the team of 5 million, working together to eliminate Covid, was very real. However, it did not take long into the second lockdown for a whole different ‘edge’ began to emerge.

And as my project got underway, my connection with Rex was re-united as he took an active interest in what I was doing. Apart from comments about posts he and I exchanged emails and messages with it becoming clear he had some pretty strong views, not unusual for ‘Punchy’ as he was nicknamed.

However, there are some people where the relationship takes  precedence over opinion, and that was the case here as my respect for Rex and his past work meant that we could agree to disagree, and maybe engage in some debate, especially about the ‘conspiracy’. Sadly, Rex was an anti-vaxer. Regardless we had agreed we would catch up in person when restrictions eased up and share more of our respective life experience.

It had crossed my mind that I had not heard anything from him for a week or so. I sent him a message and received no response. And just as I was wondering if he was ok, I received the news that he had contracted COVID, been persuaded to go to hospital, where shortly after he died. May God rest his soul and comfort his family.

Evidence is a word that has been bandied around a lot during this Lockdown. It has become a word that has evoked a great deal of anger, counter argument, fiery opinion, denial and generated some downright nasty interaction. Prior to Rex’s death I could have been accused of adopting something of an academic / impersonal attitude toward Covid and a ahakoa he aha (whatever) view of Lockdown. 

Not anymore! It has come far too close for my comfort! It is personal now! I have all the evidence I need. 



You can read more about Rex on page 4 of the Franklin County News, December 2, 2021 - https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/e-edition/franklin-county-news/44520  


Friday, November 26, 2021

An Interview With COVID

December 15th is the day Aucklanders achieve freedom from COVID Lockdown, so they can travel and ‘reconnect with the rest of New Zealand in time for Christmas and summer’. 

They will have to be fully vaccinated or have a negative test within 72 hours of departure. Not only that, but others can also travel into Auckland. There will be no ‘hard’ borders with Police checking people in or out. Police will have operational discretion on the enforcement of these rules, undertaking random spot checks, just as they do with drink driving. 

I had a zoom chat with some COVID Delta representatives suggesting their days may be numbered. That was greeted with some raucous guffaws! They reminded me that that they are the latest of 8 revised versions and further, even with the hard borders they had been successfully establishing themselves in communities previously untouched. 

They reminded me that from February 2020 we have had near 11,000 confirmed cases and now there were over 5,000 current cases in NZ, with near 70% of those being caught from someone locally. 

They said, “Mate, since the beginning of November we have steadily increased our hit rate daily from at least 100 to achieving over 200 a day and that, Mate, is with your controlled borders!” 


They seemed keen to remind me that they had also been busy producing Cuzzy Bros. “You heard about Delta Plus, Lambda variant or Mu variant? Of course, you should have heard about B.1.1.529 by now. We call him Nu for short.” Umm, good point. 

They went on further to draw an analogy with bowling. “It’s like we have been playing in a single lane bowling alley. From 15th December it will be like moving into a new 20 lane bowling alley. Imagine what we can do in there!” I had to wait until they recovered from their shrieking with delight. 

I showed him a picture illustrating the various pandemics over time and their associated death rate. 

“Looking at this" I said, "you haven’t had a very successful hit rate compared to past pandemics. Why don’t you just pack up and call it quits?” His tone changed and became deeper and more earnest (but at least that question took the growing smile off his face), “We had a good start except here in NZ then you guys got a bit cocky and dropped your guard, and bang! We were in. Yep, we have  had a slow start. But as you can see, we have been adapting and practicing and the numbers of infections are starting to pick up. We have been blessed by people wanting to lay off their personal responsibility by blaming your PM.” 

"But” I asked, “people will be double vaccinated at best or have tested negative, doesn’t that worry you at all?” 

This prompted a scornful response. 

“Mate, have you not been paying attention. They don’t worry us. Even with your hard border there were people who couldn’t give a stuff and one way, or another got out and Wahoo, we were right there alongside.”

                                                                    

I reminded them there was a big vaccination campaign. That didn’t seem to faze them either.

“You do know that vaccines are not exactly concrete full bodied condoms don’t yah?”  They reminded me they had a great team of anti–vaxers. “There are even some doctors on that team which is good for us, and you have one of your top representatives of God thumbing his nose at your authorities." 

"He’s more than just a Bishop in our eyes.” 

Then they got all caring maybe patronising, “Look Mate, we know you are all vaccinated and that shit, but the more your leaders try and protect everybody with rules and stuff, the more people are going to get antsy about being ‘controlled’ and just say Fxxx You.” 

At that point the conversation got interrupted by a loud smashing sound and someone shouting ‘STEEEERIKE!’ accompanied by lots of shouting and clapping. Mr. Covid said, “That was a good strike for today. Gotta go. We have set some new targets so got get more strikes. Cheers Mate.” 

The NZ Chief Covid was having a press conference later in the day, so I tuned in and took a snapshot of the consistent key message.



Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Road Deaths & Our Reaction to COVID




We do not expect people to behave randomly but to behave in certain ways in particular situations. Each situation entails its own particular set of expectations about the “proper” way to behave.

Society has rules, protocols, norms to provide order and predictability. Members of the society change such rules according to the need of the time and situation. Also, behavioural norms evolve through the actions of people and institutions.

Sometimes that is reinforced by regulation.

For example, during the Blitz in WWII there was a concern Britain would suffer night air bombing attacks which would cause large numbers of casualties and massive destruction. In order to make it difficult for bombers to identify areas of population at night, blackout regulations were introduced. Try as I might, I could not find any record of objection and or social commentary about rights being restricted.

Consider Naturalism, where believers find clothes restricting, hot and uncomfortable. They just don’t like having clothes on. In itself not a big issue, however their interest is restricted to home and clubs. Even there they have rules. For example, an apron is necessary when cooking a BBQ and safety gear was needed when trimming trees around the club. They are also sensible not to over-expose themselves to the sun. However, if they turned up naked at the Supermarket to do their shopping, they would probably be arrested for indecent exposure. Try as I might, I could not find any record of objection and or social commentary about their rights being restricted.

Road traffic speeds is a current ‘hot’ topic and a possible indication of where we are going to go with COVID. Despite a range of limits applied across our road system, the old default of 50km/h in urban areas and 100km/h on the open road is pretty much ingrained in many of our minds. Through a combination of education and policing, the NZ road toll has exhibited a downward trend since the late 80s through to 2010, attributed to factors such as

        Reduction in drink driving

        Improvements in vehicle safety

        More wearing seatbelts

        Hazard mitigation on roads

        Reduction in speed limits

Regardless, in the last decade, each year, between 253 – 373  people were killed and 11,219 – 14,031 people injured.  In 2017 the social cost of road deaths and injuries was more than $4.8b. Social cost is a figure that looks at how a serious crash impacts the driver and their family. It includes loss of life or reduction in the quality of life and the loss of ability to work or be employed. Medical & legal costs, and damage to vehicles is also factored in. Add in non-injury crashes, and the social cost rises to $5.6b. This doesn’t include emergency medical treatment funded through ACC, but when factored in brings the total cost to more than $6b.

In December 2019 the Government released the ‘Road to Zero’ traffic Strategy which adopts the  vision of a New Zealand where no-one is killed or seriously injured in road crashes. And that is creating some push back as people object to the attempts to slow us down, save  lives and reduce chances of injury (not to mention reducing the whole cost).

I couldn’t help but see a parallel in the reactions to the Zero Deaths on the Road strategy of saving lives and cost, reducing injury risk, and the reaction to the plans to try and eliminate COVID or at least reduce the risk of infection, death and cost.

People are demanding their ‘freedom’ from COVID restrictions, campaigning that the PM must go, claiming the experts are conspiring, defying travel restrictions, and making a conscious decision to transport the virus to others.

We have been defying restrictions on our driving speeds, (paying $272million between March 2019 & March 2020 for 2.9 million traffic offences), and making a conscious decision to put our own, let alone others, lives at risk.

Standby for the predicted explosion of COVID and learn to be very, very careful who you trust to be in contact with.

You also might find the following an interesting read on informal rule of law.

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-response-shows-how-an-informal-rule-of-law-plays-a-supporting-role-in-society-144387